Reading the Tea Leaves

A very Happy New Year to you as we embark on 2011!

 Along my daily commute there is a physic and I’ve always been fascinated by the notion of being able to see into someone’s life just based on a 5 or 10 minute discussion.  The cynic in me says it is all a scam; ‘those’ people are professionals at cold reading and goading you into revealing information that they can then present to support their psychic abilities.  The believer in me thinks that are people who are far more tuned into the spiritual world and can actually ‘see’ events.  There are strong arguments both ways.  Personal relationships and financial affairs are hardly the only areas subject to interpretation.  Look at the markets.  Reading stock charts, company earnings and press releases offer one strong insight into a particular company’s future.  But there is an awful lot ‘TBD’.  Take Globalstar for example:

When they announced that the constellation was damaged, many felt it was a death sentence.  Yet here we are nearly four years later and with new satellites flying and more on the way, they have extended the special promotion for the GSP 1600 (just $500!).  Who would have ‘seen’ this in 2007?

Whether it is Iridium and their NEXT constellation funding, Inmarsat and their Ka-Band next-generation satellites or whether Terrestar will successfully emerge from bankruptcy, reading the tea leaves is little more than informed speculation.  There is a great deal or industry knowledge that must be considered when speculating on what will happen next.  

        Has Globalstar proven innovative in problem solving? (two words – SpoT and SPoT II)
        Will Iridium’s financing package be enough capital – what if the budgets run over?  
        Will there be enough subscribers for Inmarsat’s new service or Terrestar’s service overall?

The world is in a constant state of change and interpretation and speculation are drivers of this industry.  We’ll see some good indicators in March when Satellite 2011 takes over Washington, DC – I’m looking forward to many of the sessions and the knowledge to be gleaned from them.
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Until then, we’ll keep looking at the various businesses and using our best powers of interpretation and speculation.  All over a nice cup of tea.